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This site is a member of WebRing. To browse visit here. Sunday, January 11, 2009 More inspiring Sunday reading And another one of the things you won't find on network television.Quick, raise your hands--who knows what the Baltic Dry Index is? According to Wikipedia, the Baltic Dry Index, or BDI, isan assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grainThe Capesize, Handymax and Panamax are the three largest types of dry bulk carrier vessels. They account for nearly all the international dry shipping. And they aren't going anywhere.Daniel Gross of Slate called the BDI "the best economic indicator you've never heard of." That was back in 2003 when the BDI was moving up, and demand for new container ships was at an all time high.Now we're in just the opposite situation. Lloyd's List reports a record 165 vessels empty, at anchor, as of December 29, 2008. Ironically, the container ship fleet has been growing at record speed over the last couple of years. So although the absolute number of empty ships is growing fast, the ratio of empty vessels to the overall size of the fleet is still relatively small, about 3.5 percent. In this case, it's the absolute number that counts, because every one of those ships represents cargo that isn't moving. There are multiple reasons for the stagnation in bulk shipping, but one of them is, of course, a reduced demand for goods. If people in the net-import countries aren't buying the latest in consumer gadgets, factories in the net-export countries stop shipping them. Then exporters of raw materials stop shipping as well. Australia's Fortescue Metals, an iron ore producer, recently suspended all its CFR (cost and freight) shipments, presumably because of the dramatic fall in bulk shipping rates. Fortescue had locked in the shipping at a much higher rate, and was going to lose millions of dollars as a result.Another reason for the slowdown in export to America is one that I haven't seen discussed yet, but common sense says it has to be happening. Bankers won't lend to a shaky business, and international manufacturers and raw-materials producers are beginning to think twice about selling (and then shipping) to a shaky country. China has already announced that it won't lend as much to the US. America has the highest trade deficit of any developed country in the world--in other words, we are the biggest net importers in the world. When the exporters stop sending us food, electronics, clothing, furniture, et al, where is it going to come from?I've been laughed at for talking about empty store shelves. We're beginning to see it happening. Look at the way Walmart is renovating its stores nationwide. Unless you really pay attention, you may not realize that the wider aisles and shorter shelving units disguise a much smaller inventory. My own local supermarket, part of a small regional chain, recently down-sized its produce department. The bins that used to hold dozens of heads of lettuce and cabbage, bell peppers, broccoli, cauliflower, and other refrigerated items now hold five, ten, maybe fifteen of each item. The manager says the change was to reduce the amount of waste, which is a good idea anyway. But it also reflects the increased cost of these items, and the fact that the more expensive of them, like red and yellow bell peppers, are hardly selling at all, just like the electronics and the household plastics and the toys and all the rest of the huge stream of "stuff" that used to flow across the oceans.This video lays it out in pretty stark terms, and the graphs that are presented at the end of it come from this InvestmentTools.com website.I say again, get those bags of rice and canned goods while you can, and also flashlights, batteries (rechargeable, of course, with a solar recharger), vitamins, band-aids, seeds, warm clothing if you live where that's important, gas and kerosene. posted by Liz @ 10:09 AM | The template is set to display 10 posts. To see all the posts for this month, click on the month name in the Archive section RSS Feed PERSONAL Send email toliz at life-as-a-spectator-sport.com Home I'm a mother, grandmother, a computer professional, Democrat, Christian. I welcome politely worded comments and email, my spam filter throws the rest away, so don't bother to flame me WHY 'LIFE AS A SPECTATOR SPORT' "If you're lucky not to live in the gutters of a slum, but still can't afford to take vacations in the Alps, you're part of that enormous middle class who lives life through the medium of the television, further separated from "real" life by air conditioner, by automobile, by dishwasher, microwave and ice-in-the-door refrigerator, by automatic washer and dryer, and all the other appliances and conveniences that make it possible for America to live life at second hand. I'm not sure why Americans decided that televised drama was better than the real thing, that cardboard microwave food containers were an adequate substitute for real dishes, and their contents for real food, or that cooking, dishwashing and face-to-face conversation wasn't worth the effort and time it required. Someone fed this nation a plastic crate of out-of-season tomatoes and told us it was life and we took them at their word, and we're so much the poorer for it that it's hard to know where to start to list the shortcomings." I wrote this a couple of years ago, but I have to admit it's much less amusing than I thought it would be to see the artifical construct falling apart. THE NON-ELECTRIC HOME Cleaning, 1 Cleaning, 2 Cleaning, 3 KNITTING BLOGS Extravayarnza Knitting Heretic Mind of Winter Pie Knits Persistent Illusion See Eunny Knit The Keyboard Biologist Taleweaver's Ramblings TECHnitting Wendy Knits FINISHED PROJECTS -------FINISHED IN 2006------- Peruvian Cap Tutti-Frutti Socks Shelley's Socks Carol's Socks -------FINISHED IN 2007------- Chain Link Socks Baby Surprise Jacket Valerie & Friend Baby Bonnet Rainbow Baby Socks Girls Pixie Hood Mitred Square Heart Red & White Socks Coffee Cup Pot Holder Nubbins Dishcloth Garterlac Dishcloth Suede Booties Kate's Socks Norwegian Sweet Baby Cap Half Thumbless Mittens Red Mittens for Akkol -------FINISHED IN 2008------- SELF-RELIANCE AND THE FUTURE -- Blogs and websites -- Causubon's Book Club Orlov Food Storage Made Easy From the Wilderness In the Wake Listening to Katrina Survival Topics The Modern Homestead The Oil Drum Notes from a Hillside Farm -- Mailing Lists -- 12vdc Power Living on the Land Rainwater Refrigeration Alternatives Old Ways of Living POLITICAL BLOGS and SITES The political sites have moved BOOKS I'M READING How to Grow More Vegetables, etc. Small Scale Grain Raising ARCHIVES February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 August 2008 July 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003 March 2003 February 2003 January 2003 December 2002 November 2002 October 2002 September 2002 August 2002 July 2002 June 2002 May 2002 April 2002 March 2002 February 2002 Feedjit Live Blog Stats
And another one of the things you won't find on network television.Quick, raise your hands--who knows what the Baltic Dry Index is? According to Wikipedia, the Baltic Dry Index, or BDI, isan assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grainThe Capesize, Handymax and Panamax are the three largest types of dry bulk carrier vessels. They account for nearly all the international dry shipping. And they aren't going anywhere.Daniel Gross of Slate called the BDI "the best economic indicator you've never heard of." That was back in 2003 when the BDI was moving up, and demand for new container ships was at an all time high.Now we're in just the opposite situation. Lloyd's List reports a record 165 vessels empty, at anchor, as of December 29, 2008. Ironically, the container ship fleet has been growing at record speed over the last couple of years. So although the absolute number of empty ships is growing fast, the ratio of empty vessels to the overall size of the fleet is still relatively small, about 3.5 percent. In this case, it's the absolute number that counts, because every one of those ships represents cargo that isn't moving. There are multiple reasons for the stagnation in bulk shipping, but one of them is, of course, a reduced demand for goods. If people in the net-import countries aren't buying the latest in consumer gadgets, factories in the net-export countries stop shipping them. Then exporters of raw materials stop shipping as well. Australia's Fortescue Metals, an iron ore producer, recently suspended all its CFR (cost and freight) shipments, presumably because of the dramatic fall in bulk shipping rates. Fortescue had locked in the shipping at a much higher rate, and was going to lose millions of dollars as a result.Another reason for the slowdown in export to America is one that I haven't seen discussed yet, but common sense says it has to be happening. Bankers won't lend to a shaky business, and international manufacturers and raw-materials producers are beginning to think twice about selling (and then shipping) to a shaky country. China has already announced that it won't lend as much to the US. America has the highest trade deficit of any developed country in the world--in other words, we are the biggest net importers in the world. When the exporters stop sending us food, electronics, clothing, furniture, et al, where is it going to come from?I've been laughed at for talking about empty store shelves. We're beginning to see it happening. Look at the way Walmart is renovating its stores nationwide. Unless you really pay attention, you may not realize that the wider aisles and shorter shelving units disguise a much smaller inventory. My own local supermarket, part of a small regional chain, recently down-sized its produce department. The bins that used to hold dozens of heads of lettuce and cabbage, bell peppers, broccoli, cauliflower, and other refrigerated items now hold five, ten, maybe fifteen of each item. The manager says the change was to reduce the amount of waste, which is a good idea anyway. But it also reflects the increased cost of these items, and the fact that the more expensive of them, like red and yellow bell peppers, are hardly selling at all, just like the electronics and the household plastics and the toys and all the rest of the huge stream of "stuff" that used to flow across the oceans.This video lays it out in pretty stark terms, and the graphs that are presented at the end of it come from this InvestmentTools.com website.I say again, get those bags of rice and canned goods while you can, and also flashlights, batteries (rechargeable, of course, with a solar recharger), vitamins, band-aids, seeds, warm clothing if you live where that's important, gas and kerosene.
an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 26 shipping routes measured on a timecharter and voyage basis, the index covers Handymax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain
The template is set to display 10 posts. To see all the posts for this month, click on the month name in the Archive section
RSS Feed
PERSONAL
WHY 'LIFE AS A SPECTATOR SPORT'
"If you're lucky not to live in the gutters of a slum, but still can't afford to take vacations in the Alps, you're part of that enormous middle class who lives life through the medium of the television, further separated from "real" life by air conditioner, by automobile, by dishwasher, microwave and ice-in-the-door refrigerator, by automatic washer and dryer, and all the other appliances and conveniences that make it possible for America to live life at second hand. I'm not sure why Americans decided that televised drama was better than the real thing, that cardboard microwave food containers were an adequate substitute for real dishes, and their contents for real food, or that cooking, dishwashing and face-to-face conversation wasn't worth the effort and time it required. Someone fed this nation a plastic crate of out-of-season tomatoes and told us it was life and we took them at their word, and we're so much the poorer for it that it's hard to know where to start to list the shortcomings." I wrote this a couple of years ago, but I have to admit it's much less amusing than I thought it would be to see the artifical construct falling apart.
THE NON-ELECTRIC HOME
Cleaning, 1 Cleaning, 2 Cleaning, 3
KNITTING BLOGS
Extravayarnza Knitting Heretic Mind of Winter Pie Knits Persistent Illusion See Eunny Knit The Keyboard Biologist Taleweaver's Ramblings TECHnitting Wendy Knits
FINISHED PROJECTS
SELF-RELIANCE AND THE FUTURE
POLITICAL BLOGS and SITES
BOOKS I'M READING
How to Grow More Vegetables, etc. Small Scale Grain Raising
ARCHIVES
February 2009 January 2009 December 2008 November 2008 October 2008 August 2008 July 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 February 2008 January 2008 December 2007 November 2007 October 2007 September 2007 August 2007 July 2007 June 2007 May 2007 April 2007 March 2007 February 2007 January 2007 December 2006 November 2006 October 2006 September 2006 August 2006 July 2006 June 2006 May 2006 April 2006 March 2006 February 2006 January 2006 December 2005 November 2005 October 2005 September 2005 August 2005 July 2005 June 2005 May 2005 April 2005 March 2005 February 2005 January 2005 December 2004 November 2004 October 2004 September 2004 August 2004 July 2004 June 2004 May 2004 April 2004 March 2004 February 2004 January 2004 December 2003 November 2003 October 2003 September 2003 August 2003 July 2003 June 2003 May 2003 April 2003 March 2003 February 2003 January 2003 December 2002 November 2002 October 2002 September 2002 August 2002 July 2002 June 2002 May 2002 April 2002 March 2002 February 2002
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